In The Year 2020: 35 Miles Per Gallon?

The Federal government is passing a law that auto manufacturers must meet a standard of 35mpg by the year 2020. This is supposedly up from 25mpg now. So how many of you are getting 25mpg? Do you think everyone will be getting 35 then?

I’m not impressed. Sure the auto industry is happy, but that is mainly because by requiring everyone to do it, nobody will lose by being the first one to build a car Americans clearly don’t want. Because if we did want them, we could buy them now.

And think about 2020: that’s 12 years from now. What was life like 12 years ago? There was almost no World Wide Web. No iPods. Email was rare. TVs were fat and lo-def. Cell phones still looked like phones and most people didn’t see the need to own one. And a Ford Contour was already getting 22mpg.

So yes, maybe the average fuel efficiency of vehicles has stalled a bit. But the cost of a gallon of gas is only up about a dollar since then. How much more are you paying for your phone(s)? Your cable? What expenses do you have now that you didn’t have then? High speed internet? Satellite radio?

My point is that we can’t imagine the world we will live in 12 years from now. Technology is advancing that fast. If fuel efficiency hasn’t kept pace over the last 12 years, it only because consumers haven’t made it a priority, because clearly we’re willing to spend the money on other things. It is possible that a new technological breakthrough will make cars with 35mpg look wasteful in 12 years. If cars still run on gas.

The best thing we could do to force the development of more efficient cars is to remove tax breaks for oil companies, remove price controls on gas, and let the price soar. Then let consumers decide what they want in a car.

P.S. Get a scooter.